What’s Really Happening in the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

(Based on Tina Tamboer’s July Cromford Market Update)

First, a quick note:

The Cromford Report is one of Arizona’s most trusted housing data sources. It tracks real-time market activity—faster and more locally than national outlets—so we can see what’s happening before it makes the news. It’s what top agents, lenders, and economists in the Valley rely on.

Here’s what the latest data tells us:

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Signs of a Subtle Market Shift

• Mortgage rates have stayed relatively flat since the end of 2022, but mortgage applications are rising, which means more buyers are starting to engage.

• The Cromford Market Index (CMI)—our best early indicator of a shift—is finally starting to trend upward. This is a key sign that we may be near the bottom of the market cycle.

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• Supply is slowing, and demand is remaining steady, albeit lower than when rates were lower. It likely won’t make the mainstream news headlines for a few more months, but we’re watching the turn to see if the trajectory continues.

Prices are gently gliding down, not crashing—roughly 2–3% expected through year-end. That’s about an 8% decline year-over-year depending on price point and area.

 “This isn’t a crash. This is a cool-down. Business as usual.”

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What Buyers Should Know

You’re likely buying near the bottom. Most indicators show we’re nearing the end of the buyer’s market—which means opportunity.

• Under-contract listings are up for the first time since the “Tariff Panic” in March.

• Seller concessions are common —56% of July closings included one, and the average is up to $10,000 (previously $5K).

• Price per square foot is gently declining, offering buyers a chance to get in before prices begin to rebound:

  Price Range	YoY % Change in Price/SqFt
  Under $300K	↓ 2.8%
  $300K–$400K	↓ 2.4%
  $400K–$500K	↓ 1.3%
  $500K–$600K	↓ 0.2%
  $600K–$800K	↓ 1.2%
  $800K–$1M	↓ 0.7%
  $1M–$1.5M	↓ 2.1%
  $1.5M–$2M	↓ 0.4%
  $2M–$3M	↓ 3.5%

Bottom line: buyers at nearly every price point are seeing small but meaningful opportunities—especially those under $1M. 

How to get ahead of the game? Let's start home shopping and negotiate that 1-3% off prices NOW versus waiting for the frenzy.  

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What Sellers Should Know

• If you’re selling this fall or winter, plan for longer days on market—currently averaging 48 days (and likely more as we enter the slower season).

• Price strategically and realistically. List price per square foot has dropped 4.1% seasonally.

• Patience is key—sellers still think we’re in a seller’s market until showings are few and far between.

• Expired and canceled listings are up, especially in the luxury segment and retirement areas like PV and 55+ communities.

• The silver lining? If you purchased before 2020, you're likely still walking away with a good amount of equity which means money in your pocket, or towards your next investment.

The sweet spot? Homes that are staged well and priced right are still moving—especially in Gilbert, Chandler, Tempe and Scottsdale, which are likely to recover sooner than further out areas like Queen Creek or Maricopa.

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What It’s Not Like: 2008

• Foreclosures and pre-foreclosures are very low

• Most homeowners have low fixed-rate mortgages

• Inventory is still below normal—we’re not overbuilt like in the last crash

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The Big Picture

You can’t time the bottom—by the time the headlines catch on, it’s already passed. But right now, we’re in a unique moment:

- Prices are soft
- Inventory is low
- Concessions are high
- Serious buyers and sellers are re-engaging

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Final Thoughts

If you’ve been on the fence about buying or selling, this is the moment to start the conversation. Whether you’re upgrading, downsizing, relocating, or just curious about your home's value—I’m happy to walk you through it all.

Text or call me anytime. Let’s figure out your next smart move.

Leah Burr
Realtor & Team Lead 
Arizona Living Group